I'm feeling much better about our chances today

For some reason, I all of a sudden don't feel like we are doomed. A few possible hypotheses as to this sudden optimism:

1) We've been playing injured. (for instance, Tom's rib, shoulder, finger combo). Hopefully there is some time between now and the playoffs to recover.

2) Our record is now a respectable 9-5. So is Cincinnati's. And that seems like a good place to be.

3) While we thought Carolina would be an easy game, they then went and upset the Vikings this week. Now, you could point to the Vikings and say that there were some issues there (such as Favre refusing to be benched...classy), but the point is that they were capable of more than we allowed them.

4) Remaining games for Miami: Houston and Pittsburgh. Remaining games for the Jets: Colts and Cincinnati. I feel good about the possibility that both teams will lose at least one of these games.

Wouldn't it be great if the Colts made it to 15-0 then lost to Buffalo? Can you imagine? Ouch.

Everything comes up Patriots

Life is good as a Pats fan today:

1) We won. On the road. And not one single running back dropped a ball!

2) The Jets lost. Now this makes me happy any week, but particularly now since one more loss and they are out of the playoff race.

3) The Dolphins lost. It was a particularly painful loss, no less, with Henne getting intercepted in OT. Again, that puts them another game away from the playoffs.

4) We only have to win one more game to advance to the playoffs.

5) Randy played a great game. I LOVE YOU RANDY MOSS!

(Tom and Wes...not so much. But don't worry. My love for both of you is unconditional).

Hopefully we don't blow it and some of the major injuries (especially Warren and Wilfork) are back next week.

They are moving on

I have it *on authority* that the Patriots have moved on from Sunday, so I vow to do the same. In Bill I Trust. Still. Yes, I do have something bordering on unconditional love for this team, so I will overlook the times that they don't quite execute as well as I would like. They have still given me more joy and entertainment over the past years than anything else I can think of. And for that, my Pats, I love you still.

As you may recall (or not), the last time that the Pats lost two games in a row was in 2006 against the Colts and the Jets. That cannot happen this year. We need to stay strong through the rest of the season, lock up the playoff spot, and be able to focus on January early. So we need to stay on top of the division. So far, Miami has lost one divisional game, so we're okay in that department. But it behooves us to beat the Jets this weekend...okay, maybe not 'behooves,' but sure would make things easier down the stretch.

One of my friends unearthed this week's Belichick of the Week. As usual, no one can top the master:

Interviewer: "Did you disagree with that spot [on the Faulk catch]?"

Belichick: "It doesn’t really matter."

And he is right. Remember: you can't change penalties or injuries, so just let it go.

And then there was one. . .

It's bye week for the Patriots. Boo!!! I hate bye week.

However, exciting things happened in other games today, including:

1) Miami beat the Jets again. This means that the Patriots stand alone at the top of the AFC East with a 5-2 record. Jets are now 4-4. Sweet!

1.5) What is kind of unfortunate, though, is that Miami is undefeated in the division. This gives the Pats just a wee bit more motivation to win, then. As you may recall, the reason we didn't make the playoffs last year was that our divisional record was worse than the Dolphins'.

2) Tennessee beat Jacksonville, so they are no longer winless. Also, they are clearly not the worst. football. team. ever. So let's all take a moment to savor that 59-0 win just a little bit more.

3) The Rams won too, beating the Lions. I forget the score. But at least the Rams will not be the 2009 equivalent of the 2008 Lions now (if that reference made any sense).

4) Giants lost their third straight. Heh. Eli is sure earning that ridiculously huge salary.

5) Some guy who used to be a Packer went back to Green Bay and played. Game was completely overhyped.

And the remaining winless team is (drumroll please): the Bucs!

Pats beat Bucs 35-7. Meh.

I mean, I'm not complaining or anything. It wasn't a bad game. But it wasn't a great game by any means. Sure, the Pats won 35-7, but it just didn't feel like they quite had it together. And I know, I should just be happy with the win. Maybe because there were some weaknesses that emerged against a pretty lousy team, I am now more worried.

Points that need addressing:

1) Brady didn't seem to have it again on the long passes. I had hoped, after last week, that this was no longer an issue.
2) Penalties. There were far too many.
3) Stopping the run. I felt we gave up too many yards. And sure, Cadillac Williams is a good RB, but we're facing the Dolphins next and they have a crazy run game that we need to stop (the Dolphins are - inexplicably - up 24-3 against the Saints right now. I thought last week was backward week).
4) The Bucs were getting around the O-line too easily at times. Tom had better movement in the pocket and dodged some hits. But still, more support might have been good.
5) Tom threw for two interceptions. One of them, the one in the end zone, he really should have known better.

Okay, as Coach will undoubtedly say in his press conference, there is a lot of work to be done. I just hope that they can correct some of these problems before facing Miami, because I fear that they can exploit several of these weaknesses.

(I know, I know, stop whining and enjoy the win).

Crazy ending in Miami

The Dolphins pulled it off against the Jets with a 31-27 win. They scored a touchdown in the last seconds of the game. Exciting! And so much for that vaunted Jets defense.

This is good on several levels. We are now tied with the Jets in the AFC East at 3-2. The other good thing is that the Jets lost. And clearly because it is an odd-numbered year, the Patriots will not lose to Miami.

Heh

I don't want to get all cocky here or anything, but I am loving seeing the Colts getting owned by the Dolphins. Especially on the Wildcat. Did no one get tape from last year to study this play?

From what I recall, the Pats may have sucked the first time, but after the opportunity to study some tape, basically shut them down.

Heh.

Knowing the Colts, though, they will find a way to come back on some ridiculous play and barely win. Just to spite us all.

5 minutes later: Yeah, I knew it, Colts just scored a TD. Still about a quarter of play remaining.

Here's a crazy statistic

'Still, these are the Patriots, who have not lost a regular-season game with Brady at quarterback since Dec. 10, 2006.' -- from the AP article on tonight's game.

That was a long time ago!

If you guessed the Dolphins, you are correct. We lose to them once in even-numbered years. Think of it as our gimmick.

Rusty Old Man Favre throws away our playoff hopes, karma is a bitch

So you probably know by now that the Miami Dolphins are the AFC East champions, primarily (but not exclusively) due to the fact that Favre freaking sucks. Three interceptions. Three. Three! I heard the game on the radio (while returning from my game) and come on! Three! And this man is a Pro Bowl QB, which is a bit like Britney Spears winning multiple MTV awards for 'Piece of Me.'

But I'm not going to lie: as someone on the anti-Mangini Train, I was, in a way, very pleased that of all QBs to beat them, they lost the final game to Pennington. This, to me, is a great story. He gets cast aside in a truly wretched manner by the Jets to bring in Favre, then has what has got to be a career-best year. So ha, ha. And that's the karma part of the post.

I still have lots to say about match-ups, football, and everything else. Not quite time for a full blog switch to hockey. Not quite.

And sometimes I do hate it when I'm right. Weeks ago, I said Miami had the best shot at the AFC East title. Boo me.

Good news, everyone! (Seahawks beat Jets)

Start the Heimlich maneuver because the Jets are awfully close to choking. Several bizarre plays allowed the Seahawks to win 13-3. I think my favorite was when they snapped the ball late on the field goal attempt. Yet I also liked when instead of trying for the field goal on the next attempt (+5 yards), Mangini opted to punt instead. And let's not forget that late 4th and long call that resulted in naught -- actually, worse than naught, because the Seahawks went on to score a field goal and put the game away.

The sportscaster was even more unimpressed with Mangini's calls that I was, which takes a lot.

The dream is still alive. Barely. I can't bring myself to say 'Go Jets,' but I would prefer that they win next week against Miami.

Why there is no such thing as running up the score

I'm not even going to bother to comment about how if the Colts had played like they did against many teams last night, they wouldn't have won.

However, they did qualify for a wild card spot, meaning that the wild card picture stands pretty much as it did when I last posted about it. So if the Ravens, Dolphins, and Jets all win, then we are pretty much out of it (barring a tie by the Jets-Dolphins in the last game, which would be completely wild. But unlikely). Here is one last possible scenario:

'There's one final possibility here, albeit a very confusing one: If either the Jets or Dolphins lose their last two games; and if the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills; and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars; New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. Complicating matters is that, if our math is right, they would also be tied in the next tiebreaker -- record against common opponents. So that means it could come down to strength of victory.'

'Strength of victory' would mean that you want the most points possible, meaning that there is no such thing as running up the score. You may resume your business.

Teams that are currently 9-5

New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens (I cheered for the Steelers and yes, I feel a bit dirty now)
Miami Dolphins (so close, 49ers, and yet so far)
New York Jets (you are KILLING ME, Buffalo, for turning over the ball with a little over a minute to go, leading to the game-winning TD. Come on!)

...so theoretically, it is now not only a tie in the division, but also a tie for the last wild card spot.

Here's what I need to happen over the last two weeks:

Week 16

New England Patriots (10-5) beat Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks beat Jets (9-6) -- this is not likely. Or is it?
Miami Dolphins (10-5) beat Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys beat Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

Week 17
New England Patriots (11-5) beat Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (10-6) beat Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) beat Jacksonville Jaguars. Or not. I don't really care at this point.

Easy, right?

Incidentally, at one point today (at the start of the 4th quarter, in fact) Detroit was tied against Indy 21-21. Then, naturally, they lost.

Our chances at the playoffs? Slim to none

Here is a detailed list of what needs to happen for us to make the playoffs. The most realistic hope, in my opinion, is Baltimore losing against the NFC East, even though they played Washington last night and beat them. However, they still have several tough games remaining.

NFL.com is giving us better odds, noting that in some ways our schedule is the easiest (clearly Arizona is considered 'easy' by this standard, which I think is debatable).

It would be insanely helpful if the Bills could come up big against the Jets this weekend. Then Seattle do the same.

It's not over yet, but it's starting to inch its way closer to over.

Pats 48, Miami 28

Ahhhhhhh, much better. This is a relief on many levels:

1) We didn't get destroyed by the wildcat play. *golf claps*

2) We won against a division rival whose schedule is relatively easy for the remainder of the season.

3) We got over 500 yards again (two weeks running), but this time won the game.

4) Randy Moss got three touchdowns. *loud up and down cheering*

However, in Also Important News, the Jets soundly beat the Titans, 34-13, lending credence to my new theory that Mangini has sold his soul to the Devil. So the Jets are now 8-3, we are 7-4, Miami is 6-5, and Buffalo (after destroying Kansas City) is 6-5. As Bill will undoubtedly remind us in this week's press conference, there are still many games to go and we need to just take them one game at a time and etc, etc, etc. You could actually make a good Mad Lib out of it:

"Well, today we played against a ______ (adj.) team. There were some ________ (adj.) moments and there are certainly many areas where we can _________ (verb). Next week, we'll be playing another _________ (adj.) team that is playing as ______ (adj.) as any other team in the league. We will just take it _____ (number) game at a time, because it ____ (verb, cong. 3rd person sing.) what it _______ (verb, cong. 3rd person sing.)."

I'm curious to see which SD will show up tonight (and for that matter, which Indy team). Peyton threw 12 interceptions against SD in two games last year. Twelve. To put that into perspective, and choosing a quarterback at random, Tom Brady threw for eight total during the regular season of 16 games. Eight.

Observation: Brandon Meriweather was consistently 3-5 seconds behind all plays for most of the game. However, during the fourth quarter, Bill was seen on the sidelines talking to him. Next drive Merriweather comes out and gets an interception. Bill, KEEP TALKING TO HIM!

Important game for the Pats

Actually, no matter which way you look at it, it is an important game. The Pats and Miami are tied right now at 6-4, so whoever wins will be in a better position for the wild card spot. Miami has the better schedule between the two, so the Pats need to step it up today and win.

USA Today headline that no one would have expected last year: 'Dolphins expect to see improved Patriots.'

For reasons I cannot understand, the game is not being broadcast here. In fact, there is no CBS 1pm game. What is with that? I would much rather prefer to stay in today and watch from home. Ah well.

In college news, Texas Tech (2) got thoroughly destroyed by Oklahoma (5), 65-21 (another game I had to miss due to wedding-related events...the same wedding as the dueling piano bar bachelorette party. This one I am not so bummed out about).

Wildcat Week

The Pats are playing the Miami Dolphins this Sunday and that has led to no shortage of speculation about how to stop the Wildcat play (direct snap to Brown). It was precisely this play by which the Patriots were schooled in their first match-up. I would say that if we can't stop it this time around, and Miami can beat us, then our playoff hopes start to look dimmer -- what a strange situation to be in after the past 5 years.

On the bright side, the Jets are playing the Titans this week. From having seen Tennessee play, they appear to be the stronger of the two. Now this is not just Mangini rancor, I really haven't seen the Jets play all that many strong games. Sure, they did beat the Pats last week but it wasn't exactly a powerhouse team that showed up and played.

Looks like Bill has been watching some tape

Here is Bill's lengthy analysis of the Wildcat by the Miami Dolphins and why it has been working for them. With intricate detail. In Bill We Trust.

Now just please don't get fooled by it ever again! Ever!

Sunday afternoon observations

Detroit's remaining games are: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Green Bay. I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of these teams are currently .500 or higher. Which means that I think it is very possible they could be the first team to go without a win since the 1977 Buccaneers. They put in Culpepper today, so maybe he will improve. But that is a tough, icky schedule.

New England played a good game against Buffalo, although even I will admit that the calls went our way perhaps more often than not. The Jets had a decisive victory against St. Louis. Highlights showed some pretty ugly plays from the Rams.

I hereby declare that the situation in the AFC East has officially become exciting. Buffalo certainly seems to be waning, while the Jets have (as much as I hate to admit it) been quite effective as of late. Thursday night is the Pats vs. the Jets, so that should shed some light on the current divisional balance of power. I'm not sure if Miami can be as consistent as they need to be this season. They are having good games, but if indeed the Pats and Jets have become a force, that will be trickier for them.

Dave Thomas, as a follow-up, is appealing the fine. Randy Moss was also fined last week to the tune of $20 000 for criticizing the refereeing in last week's game. What exactly does the league do with this money? I'll leave that research for another day.