What we learned this week

A lot!

1) Buffalo and Cleveland fought to a 6-3 conclusion in favor of the Browns. Both of these teams are officially disaster zones.

2) Brady needs to throw to people apart from only Welker (actually I was not happy with the second half game-calling at all, but I may save that for another post).

3) The Cowboys ain't what they used to be. Or what they should be. They almost lost to the winless Kansas City Chiefs. Kudos to the Chiefs, Cowboys....really?

4) Jacksonville may be the most unpredictable team out there. Last week they destroyed the Titans. This week they were smunched (yes, I invented a word) 41-0 by Seattle. This is not exactly a powerhouse team. Now, I understand when the Raiders get smunched 44-7 by the Giants, even though inwardly it may make me confused (Eli? Was he kidnapped and replaced with a clone who doesn't make stupid plays and throw interceptions?). But not Seattle destroying you. That's just wrong.

5) Matt Schaub has apparently still not learned that the way to win football games is to not (repeat, not) throw interceptions right near the end.

6) Josh McDaniels can look really evil when he's mad at special teams.

7) The Ravens are a team that gets penalized a lot, and not only when they play the Pats.

8) The Patriot tuques are the best (something else I just learned: if you Google 'Patriot tuque,' this blog is the second hit).

Ravens will not be fined, league sucks

So those Ravens who were complaining about the calls? The ones who would have been fined in a split second last season (see previous comments on 'fines,' particularly those from the Indianapolis Colts game last year)? They are not being fined this time around. That is total crap. The league needs a consistent policy here. And let's not forget, this is the same league that charged Wes Welker last year for making a snowman.

In case you're curious, here is the infamous Suggs hit. Did Brady signal for a penalty? Yes. What is a penalty? Yes! Dude was charging straight for his knee! He could have avoided the direct helmet going toward it, he wasn't being pushed by another player.

In an even stupider move by the league, Mike Wright (Patriots) did get fined for hitting the Ravens' QB on the helmet. Because that's consistent.

Reiss provided a nice analysis of who has been fined for what in regards to QB penalties. Baltimore is leading with 4 calls against, and the Patriots are second with 3. Because the refs are biased for us, obviously.

Argh. Whatever, it's time to let this go. Championship teams don't lose because of 'bad' calls, they win in spite of them.

Defense wins championships

Before anyone leaps on the 'Brady is washed up and done' wagon, let's recall that the Pats were playing one of the strongest defenses in the league today and still came up on top. They won 27-21. Now ideally, it would have been nice to do better, of course, particularly on the last drive. But we did enough to win.

And it's important to bear in mind that the reason we did enough to win is that the defense came up with a giant stop on the last drive, stopping the Ravens four times when they started at 1st and goal. We had the people in place ot make these crucial plays. This team is definitely our strongest in years - forget about 2007, that was precisely when we needed our defense to come up big and they didn't make the needed plays.

Also, Brandon Meriweather was fabulous today. He got one interception and almost came up with two more. Great job by the D all around.

Why there is no such thing as running up the score

I'm not even going to bother to comment about how if the Colts had played like they did against many teams last night, they wouldn't have won.

However, they did qualify for a wild card spot, meaning that the wild card picture stands pretty much as it did when I last posted about it. So if the Ravens, Dolphins, and Jets all win, then we are pretty much out of it (barring a tie by the Jets-Dolphins in the last game, which would be completely wild. But unlikely). Here is one last possible scenario:

'There's one final possibility here, albeit a very confusing one: If either the Jets or Dolphins lose their last two games; and if the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills; and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars; New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. Complicating matters is that, if our math is right, they would also be tied in the next tiebreaker -- record against common opponents. So that means it could come down to strength of victory.'

'Strength of victory' would mean that you want the most points possible, meaning that there is no such thing as running up the score. You may resume your business.

Teams that are currently 9-5

New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens (I cheered for the Steelers and yes, I feel a bit dirty now)
Miami Dolphins (so close, 49ers, and yet so far)
New York Jets (you are KILLING ME, Buffalo, for turning over the ball with a little over a minute to go, leading to the game-winning TD. Come on!)

...so theoretically, it is now not only a tie in the division, but also a tie for the last wild card spot.

Here's what I need to happen over the last two weeks:

Week 16

New England Patriots (10-5) beat Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks beat Jets (9-6) -- this is not likely. Or is it?
Miami Dolphins (10-5) beat Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys beat Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

Week 17
New England Patriots (11-5) beat Buffalo Bills
New York Jets (10-6) beat Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) beat Jacksonville Jaguars. Or not. I don't really care at this point.

Easy, right?

Incidentally, at one point today (at the start of the 4th quarter, in fact) Detroit was tied against Indy 21-21. Then, naturally, they lost.

Our chances at the playoffs? Slim to none

Here is a detailed list of what needs to happen for us to make the playoffs. The most realistic hope, in my opinion, is Baltimore losing against the NFC East, even though they played Washington last night and beat them. However, they still have several tough games remaining.

NFL.com is giving us better odds, noting that in some ways our schedule is the easiest (clearly Arizona is considered 'easy' by this standard, which I think is debatable).

It would be insanely helpful if the Bills could come up big against the Jets this weekend. Then Seattle do the same.

It's not over yet, but it's starting to inch its way closer to over.

How are we doing?

We're entering the last six games of the season (for most) and I wanted to take a look at The Situation. Naturally, my look is only at The Situation in the AFC. Stuff is happening in the NFC, whatever, Giants winning a lot, Arizona comeback QB, Green Bay not dead with Aaron Rogers, Carolina tearing it up, blah blah blah.

Right now, first place by division:

AFC East: New York Jets (7-3)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (10-0)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (6-4)

Divisions that cease to hold my interest awfully quickly:

AFC West: The Broncos will, in all likelihood, win this division. However, they have not exactly proven themselves to be a powerhouse this year. Other teams are all below .500.

Divisions where I think the team currently in first has a lock:

AFC South: I seriously doubt that Tennessee will go 0-6 for the last six games. There could (and likely will be) a loss or two, possibly to the Jets (although ???) or, I think more likely, Indy. Just to mess with them.

Divisions that got wicked exciting when no one was looking

AFC East: Right now, the Jets are 7-3, the Pats and Dolphins are 6-4, and the Bills are 5-4, which means that it is technically still anyone's division.

Divisions where I feel confident they shall overcome

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers. They have not been as strong as of late (and almost lost to San Diego yesterday), but I have confidence that they will pull it off.

Possible wild card teams (in the order that I feel they most deserve):

[As much as I hate to do this] Miami Dolphins: they are on a roll and have a really easy schedule remaining other than their two division games. I feel like New England can probably beat them (if they aren't caught off-guard by the same play 5 times again) and likely the Jets will too. However, other weeks include Kansas City, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Buffalo.

New England Patriots: they need to improve in the red zone and make up for losses to injury on the defense and if they play the Jets again, stop #81. That being said, they are a pretty competitive team and two of their four losses were very close (and against the Jets and Indy. And we really should have had that damned Jets game even though we played like poo in the first half). However, there are still some tough games remaining, including Arizona and Pittsburgh. Everyone take a moment and reflect back to 2001 with the 6-game win streak to end the season. You may now resume whatever you were doing.

Baltimore Ravens: unfortunately, they still have a pretty difficult schedule remaining against NFC East teams. Which is sad, because I think that they are currently fielding a better team than, say, the Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts: I was almost willing to give them a little slack after they beat New England and Pittsburgh in close games. Then they went and barely squeaked by the Houston Texans. That is no good. Still not sure on this one. They still have to play Tennessee (and I know I said above that this might be a Tennessee loss but it depends which Colts team shows up) and Jacksonville. Now, admittedly Jacksonville has mostly sucked this year, but they are divisional rivals and they did field a good effort against the Titans yesterday.

Buffalo Bills: they have been declining after their strong start. Considering that they are in a competitive division (and who would have guessed after last year), this is a bad move.