Saturday Afternoon Thoughts

(Note: I did a run this morning in 95% humidity with a 78F dew point.  So my brain is maybe not operating so well right now).

I have two thoughts on this lovely -- albeit hot -- Saturday afternoon:

1) Despite the fact that I love Robert Kraft and everything that he has done to create what is undoubtedly the best football team I will ever see in my lifetime, I am not agreeing with the lack of signing Tom Brady.  Now, I don't want to say that TB is the linchpin that holds the Patriots together, but I don't want to say that because it is, in fact, an understatement.  There are three things that made the Patriots team of the decade:

•  Bill Belichick and various other coaching genii around him (although then they leave and become much less genius-like)
• A strong, solid defense (or else you'd just be the Colts and fizzle out year after year)
• Tom Freaking Brady (see: Brett Favre in numerous pressure chokes, Tony Romo, etc...)

Now, I know that Cassel did not play shamefully when he was put on the spot, but he was still no Tom, as the games against equivalent/better teams showed (see: Pittsburgh [it still makes me wince]).  There is no other Tom in the entire game and may never be.  So sign him!  Now!  Do it!

I had mostly been ignoring this story on the grounds that it was probably another fruitless media hunt against the Patriots ('Belichick neglects to say 'Bless You' to woman sneezing in restaurant'-type material).  But more and more is surfacing to show that he is not happy.  Now I will continue to be in happy denial.  Pass that Foxborough Kool-Aid.

2) I like the Red Sox's chances.

Yes, really.

You never thought that you would read that here, did you?

Now, it has been a trying season.  In fact, that's an understatement.  This has been one of those seasons where you actually start to see why Red Sox fans mention the Tobin Bridge so often as a jumping point.  Remember when Papelbon blew two saves in a row?  Or when we came back against the Yankees, then lost it in the bottom of the ninth (due to A-Rod no less)?  Or when Bard came in against Cleveland and was a disaster zone?  Or the countless injuries that we've had to endure (Buchholz pulls his hammy running the bases)?  Or Bill Hall at the start of the season?  Or Papi being on-again-off-again?  Or....or....or....  The list goes on and on and on and on.

But, one thing we did see after the hideous start is that this is, in fact, one of the best teams in baseball.  Run prevention-schmrum prevention.  They can hit, pitch, and even have dramatic moments from guys just called up from Triple A (Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald).  And they did have one of the best records in baseball through May-June.  Here is my logic: if we get people back off the DL (Pedroia, Martinez, and the pitchers, who are getting off the DL), then we could make a run for it.

Conversely, the Yankees and Rays will probably slump.  So we just need to time this for when they are.  I feel like the Yankees are evil mutant robots who never tire or get injured in a big way, so I'm thinking it might be the Rays.  Either way, I -- of all people -- have not given up hope.  So neither should you.

In Bill I Trust (aka, it's all gonna be okay...just maybe not this season)

I got thinking about the embarrassment that was Monday night's game and while this is probably not our year, I suddenly had some insights that made me feel better. As we all know, Belichick is a smart guy, so anything that I'm seeing I would think he is seeing even more acutely. And I was reminded of a trauma moment in Patriots' history (I feel like 'trauma moment' should have its own German word, which would be something like 'Traumaaugenblick'). There have been three Traumaaugenblicken to me in the past three years: 1) We blow a 21-3 lead to the Colts for the AFC Championship in 2006; 2) The FREAKING HELMET CATCH (not to mention Eli dodging the sack) during Superbowl in 2007; 3) Tom Brady takes the helmet to the knee and ends his season in 2008. What is more important, though, is how we handled those moments. Belichick learns, fixes, and tries to improve the problems. For instance, after 2006, with the understanding that maybe we need real receivers, he signs Moss and Welker. There is another important theme in this story that emerges here: Belichick's willingness to take risks (Moss certainly was one), and having a back-up plan in case it doesn't pan out (Welker being the back-up plan in case Moss didn't work). As we all know, that went pretty well, right up until Traumaaugenblick #2. I think that last season we didn't get much of a chance to understand how the team had changed after the 2007 SB because the first couple of months were spent evaluating Cassel. In the end, things turned out okay, and had Brady been our QB, we almost certainly would have been a playoff team.

However, where we got beat last year was on defense (think about the Miami game we lost, the Chargers game, and the Jets game as moments when our defense broke down). So this year, Belichick took another risk and revamped the defense. For the first 10 weeks of the season, that risk seemed to have paid off pretty well; we were 2nd overall in points allowed and even after the past few weeks, we are still 7th. Consider that we have played the leading team for offensive points scored (the Saints), and the third-leading team (the Colts) -- if you're wondering, we're the second-best team for points scored. That's not too shabby considering the changes. And I can't stress enough that the changes needed to happen. I still believe that aside from the aging LBs (Eli dodges the sack, remember?), the other flaw that needed correction was the secondary, which was a freaking mess last season. That appeared to be mostly fixed until this past game, where suddenly there were major gaps. Something tells me that another attempt will be made to fix it this year. One of the qualities I most admire about Belichick is his ability to stop a bad situation from getting worse: he's not too proud (or arrogant) to admit his mistakes in the roster.

One of the key factors in this season which I think is overlooked is the Joey Galloway one (dammit, I need to revive that tag!). He was supposed to be our third receiver and would not have been a shabby one. But that didn't turn out...who knew that he couldn't keep his feet inbounds? So we gambled (by getting rid of Gaffney) and that did not pay off. There isn't anything anyone can do about it now, and it doesn't help that a lot of the other potentials, such as Edelman and Tate, have been injured.

Why am I saying this now? Because I can promise you that no one watched last week's game more acutely than Belichick and he sees those weaknesses. More importantly, he will try to correct them. While it might not be possible this late in the season -- and let's not forget that barring a complete meltdown of Bucc-ish proportions, this team is still going to the playoffs -- he will try to change it for next year. It may not work: consider that our secondary is not where it should be. More continuity in the coaching staff would help, I think, since there has been a lot of turnover during the past few seasons. The situation at running back would benefit from more stability; again, it was a gamble signing Fred Taylor and it appeared to be a good one right up until the point when he got injured (imagine if we had Maroney and Taylor, our running game might be pretty solid). So did this season turn out the way we had hoped? No, it's not 2007, and it never will be again. However, 2007 also ended in one of the most painful Traumaaugenblicken imaginable, so we should be happy it's a new team. It may not be perfect, but it's ours, and as always, in Bill I trust.

Play Calling

Okay, we have a new offensive coordinator (of course, because our previous one beat us this afternoon). And I know that at times, we complained and griped about him. Too many fancy-pant plays. Not enough rushing. But he did get us the 18-1 season and kept the team going when we had Matt Cassel step in. I know that I complained too, and I stand by that.

But...

What on earth happened today? Why were we running with the clock tick-tocking away at the end of the 4th quarter? I mean sure, Denver has a good defense and Watson was off the field with an injury, but did we not have one single new play to throw out there that could confuse the Broncos? I mean, they figured out the 'pass to Welker' thing (even though not all of those passes were on). I will be forced to assume that Moss was covered for most of the game because he didn't show up much. But still, we should have tried to run it more in the 3rd, when we wanted to run out the clock, not in the fourth when we needed big plays?

Also, the only way for Moss and Brady to start connecting is practice, practice, practice. You may not remember when the Pats were merely scoring 34 points at the start of the 2007 season, but I do. And what I also remember is that Moss and Brady did not connect on every play. In fact, I'd give them about a 50% chance. Remember the last regular season game against the Giants? Brady passed long down the field, Moss missed. Next play, Brady did it again (it was his 50th TD) of the season on the exact same play and they did it. So let them try on some of those 2nd and whatevers.

Also, was Edelman even on the field in the second half? They didn't seem to throw to him. Try a double Wes Welker, I'll bet McDaniels wouldn't know what hit him.

Incidentally, Kevin Faulk (who has never been my favorite but did pretty well last year so I laid off on him) averaged - ready for it - 2 yards a carry (4 attempts, 8 yards). That is wretched.

Matt Cassel takes icky injury to his leg

After what was reportedly an awful hit, Matt Cassel will probably miss 2-4 weeks with the Kansas City Chiefs. He has an MCL injury in his right knee, which is not the worst thing that can happen to you and does not require surgery to heal. This is not their first QB to go down. Someone might want to bulk up that O-line.

Some are now calling for Casselgate

Oh good grief.

Let it go people. The second-round pick makes sense. Was it the best trade ever? Maybe not, but it did clear cap space and let the Patriots get on with things. Also, this whole three-way trade thing was never fully established and it would seem that Jay Cutler hasn't been drummed out of Denver, yet, so just let it go. At any rate, I don't think that there is any call for investigation into collusion or anything else. I need to stop reading these stories, they will age me prematurely.

Also, Bill sports a lovely pair of shorts (WHAT IS HAPPENING THERE? MY EYES! MY EYES!) while talking to Cassel in practice. Wow.

And Matt Cassel makes three (if you count Pioli)

Matt Cassel was also traded to the Chiefs as part of the Vrabel deal. We got their second-round pick in return.

I know, I was 34 minutes slow on this story. That's what happens when I do work.

You might be asking, 'That's it?' I know that I was. Here is Reiss to explain. One thing to bear in mind: there is no guarantee that Cassel will step up at the same level. Somehow I don't think that we can forget he had Wes Welker and Randy Moss in New England (even if he wasn't throwing to Randy so often, it did mean other teams had to compensate for him in their defensive coverage). So yeah, now let's use that 2nd round pick for Good and not Evil. Or maybe just for a corner.

And here's Mark from NH with a parting thought:

"Ye of little faith. Do you think there is no master plan in place, not yet disclosed.
In Bill we trust. Come on you cranks, he didn't get to the top of the food chain being stupid."

Tom Brady behind schedule

This is baaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

I guess that we all have to hope that this report is wildly exaggerated, although that doesn't seem likely. So seems like we will be re-signing Cassel. Or something. Ick. Not a fabulous week for Patriots fans!

UPDATE: So apparently this story may not be true (for sinister reasons). Tom may only need teeny tiny quick surgery. Let's hope so.

Matt Cassel on staying, going

Matt Cassel is being a very correct Patriot and speaking to the press in very correct ways about how he loves the organization and wouldn't want to go elsewhere, but realizes that that is virtually impossible.

There had been no word out of Foxborough about Tom Brady (as usual, they are remaining completely mum about it in fact), so it's unsure for the fans whether he will be ready to play next season or not.

Remember around 15 weeks ago when we all thought our season was over because Brady went down? It's amazing how far Cassel has come. If he does wind up going -- and I'm pretty sure that all Patriots fans would wish him the best -- he will be missed.

From the team that brought you the manly kiss

You may not remember this, but on two separate occasions, Tom Brady manly kissed (on the cheek) Belichick last year after games early in the season/soon after Spygate. Bruschi did once as well.

Now I was not aware that football players could get away with saying the following to the media. Heath Evans commenting on the death of Matt Cassel's father:

"Maybe being around the guys might ease [things] a bit," said fullback Heath Evans. "I don't know that for a fact. I know I just kind of wanted to wrap my arms around him this morning and tell him I loved him. At this time, that's about the only thing you know to do. Hopefully, we can be of some encouragement to him and see how that helps him out."

I love it. And who doesn't love Matt Cassel, somewhere deep inside?

Recovering from yesterday's slaughter

I am still concerned about Wes Welker, so far on patriots.com, nfl.com and Reiss, there are no updates.

One of the members of our Patriots meet-up group here in Tampa pointed out yesterday that we are playing our B-team, yet still managing to be a threat. This is a guy who is a long-time committed fan (he even reminded us all that in 1991, the Patriots won 1 game). In fact, he seemed downright cheerful at the end of the game, unlike the rest of the table. I don't know if I've quite reached this level of acceptance, but it's a valid point.

For anyone talking about trading Tom and keeping Cassel...you're nuts, right? For the most part, Cassel did well, but not great. It's possible that in those conditions, Tom only would have done well. However, we've all seen him be great. More blame, though, still goes on the receivers (particularly Randy Moss) who did not seem capable of holding on to the ball at all.

The post-game quotes were appropriately contrite. Reiss is also reminding us that from here on, the schedule gets easier.

Lots of thanks for Pats fans

1) Matt Light, who was involved in an altercation (hockey-style) last week, was not suspended. Yay. That would have been a big blow before the Pittsburgh game.

2) Matt Cassel was the AFC Player of the Week.

3) Tom Brady helped out in Roxbury serving Thanksgiving dinners.

(I'm less grateful for the fact that Gisele was with him...)

Matt Cassel's offensive production

With two 400+ yard games in a row, Matt Cassel has now joined the following quarterbacks in achieving that feat: Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Phil Simms and Billy Volek. Not bad.

Remember when people were demanding that the Patriots get an unsigned QB in to replace Cassel? Like Culpepper? His QB rating was 37.7 yesterday (Cassel's was 114) and he got pulled in the third quarter. In Bill We Trust.

Pats 48, Miami 28

Ahhhhhhh, much better. This is a relief on many levels:

1) We didn't get destroyed by the wildcat play. *golf claps*

2) We won against a division rival whose schedule is relatively easy for the remainder of the season.

3) We got over 500 yards again (two weeks running), but this time won the game.

4) Randy Moss got three touchdowns. *loud up and down cheering*

However, in Also Important News, the Jets soundly beat the Titans, 34-13, lending credence to my new theory that Mangini has sold his soul to the Devil. So the Jets are now 8-3, we are 7-4, Miami is 6-5, and Buffalo (after destroying Kansas City) is 6-5. As Bill will undoubtedly remind us in this week's press conference, there are still many games to go and we need to just take them one game at a time and etc, etc, etc. You could actually make a good Mad Lib out of it:

"Well, today we played against a ______ (adj.) team. There were some ________ (adj.) moments and there are certainly many areas where we can _________ (verb). Next week, we'll be playing another _________ (adj.) team that is playing as ______ (adj.) as any other team in the league. We will just take it _____ (number) game at a time, because it ____ (verb, cong. 3rd person sing.) what it _______ (verb, cong. 3rd person sing.)."

I'm curious to see which SD will show up tonight (and for that matter, which Indy team). Peyton threw 12 interceptions against SD in two games last year. Twelve. To put that into perspective, and choosing a quarterback at random, Tom Brady threw for eight total during the regular season of 16 games. Eight.

Observation: Brandon Meriweather was consistently 3-5 seconds behind all plays for most of the game. However, during the fourth quarter, Bill was seen on the sidelines talking to him. Next drive Merriweather comes out and gets an interception. Bill, KEEP TALKING TO HIM!

How many yards???

Reiss breaks it down really nicely:

The Patriots got 511 (!) net yards.

Matt Cassel threw for 400 of those. He ran for 62 of those. He also had 30 completions.

Wes Welker caught 7 for 108 yards. Watson had 88. Keller, that infamous #81 on the Jets, had 87.

Mayo ruled the field with 20 tackles, although we probably all noticed that.

Gostkowski set a personal record for most field goals in a season (24). If he gets to 32, he'll beat the club record. In a way, I want to see him do this. In a way, I really don't because I want to see more touchdowns.

Thoughts post-Jets vs. Pats

Thought #1: Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

Thought #2: We should have been able to hold them at 3rd and 15, particularly considering that they threw up the middle to 81. It would seem that Favre now has exactly three plays: short throw to the right, short throw to the left, and medium throw up the middle to 81. Great time to choose man over zone.

Thought #3: Two words: special teams. In fact, if the game had continued in the second half as it did in the first, my post was going to be, 'Two words: SPECIAL TEAMS.'

Thought #4: Do you think Mangenius/Manjudas (thanks Sarah!) would feel better with a teddy bear on the sideline? He looks very unhappy.

Thought #5: What I most remember from this game is that for much of the first half we looked cruddy, then for much of the third quarter we committed irritating errors like fumbles and missed balls and snaps that were just not quite there and "holding" calls. Plus we held the Jets to, like, 34 yards. Yet at the end of regular play, we were tied.

Thought #6: Matt Cassel was pretty awesome. Nay, extremely awesome. That last drive was excellent. Nay, superbly, supremely, sublimely excellent.

Concluding thoughts: good happened in this game. Lots of good things. Unfortunately, the bad things offset many of these good things. If we can continue to build on the good things, we're in a good position for the rest of the season (after all 6-4 is not bad in this division or actually overall). Probably we will have another loss or two though, which is a concern (maybe Pittsburgh and/or Arizona?).

Thoughts that will cause me concern during the week: red zone percentage is still far too low. As pretty much all of us noted, the Pats are currently something hideous like 10% in red zone touchdowns. But think this over: if they were at just 50%, we would be an extremely difficult opponent. So that is, in this humble fan's opinion, what needs to happen.

Thoughts on Belichick: I think that he's having more fun this season because he actually gets to coach, like draw diagrams and stuff. Last year, I think maybe everything started getting too routine.

Thoughts on officiating: Vrabel was not holding anyone on that called play. Hopefully I won't be fined by the NFL for that comment.

Schadenfreudlichen Thoughts: Who was covering Moss on that last second touchdown? Well, I'll be. It was rusty old man Ty Law.

Colts vs. Pats aftermath

Ugh.

I think that the good news is we can still be competitive against a very competitive team (where on earth did those Colts come from? Not the same team that played Tennessee last week!). What's irritating is that we had the opportunities and didn't capitalize. So ugh.

More good news: Matt Cassel continues to look better and better. This week the only interceptions came late, when we were reminded that yes, this is still Matt Cassel and not Tom Brady (not that Brady is infallible either...2006 AFC Championship is all I need to say there). Also, the defense was really quite good. No sacks, but they did a great job containing the run and there were not as many ugly deep plays as there could have been. Not to mention that they held the Colts to 18 points.

Jabar Gaffney........aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That really should have been a touchdown. It was an extremely well thrown ball. So again, Cassel is getting better and now it's time for everyone else to pick it up as well.

Now, I am not one to criticize Bill Belichick all that much. In fact, I'll let him off on some moves that I'm pretty sure other Pats fans were not very impressed with, such as challenging the too many men on the field call (and at any rate, that wasn't Belichick's fault, it was whoever was upstairs telling him to throw the flag). Sure, I wish he hadn't called the time out before the 4th down that would have worked. Something tells me that he wishes he hadn't done that either.

In hindsight, as irritating as this game was, it showed that the Patriots can step it up when necessary. In the end, it didn't go our way. When I think about all the games that did wind up going our way in previous seasons, we're probably due.