Wednesday, December 2, 2009

In Bill I Trust (aka, it's all gonna be okay...just maybe not this season)

I got thinking about the embarrassment that was Monday night's game and while this is probably not our year, I suddenly had some insights that made me feel better. As we all know, Belichick is a smart guy, so anything that I'm seeing I would think he is seeing even more acutely. And I was reminded of a trauma moment in Patriots' history (I feel like 'trauma moment' should have its own German word, which would be something like 'Traumaaugenblick'). There have been three Traumaaugenblicken to me in the past three years: 1) We blow a 21-3 lead to the Colts for the AFC Championship in 2006; 2) The FREAKING HELMET CATCH (not to mention Eli dodging the sack) during Superbowl in 2007; 3) Tom Brady takes the helmet to the knee and ends his season in 2008. What is more important, though, is how we handled those moments. Belichick learns, fixes, and tries to improve the problems. For instance, after 2006, with the understanding that maybe we need real receivers, he signs Moss and Welker. There is another important theme in this story that emerges here: Belichick's willingness to take risks (Moss certainly was one), and having a back-up plan in case it doesn't pan out (Welker being the back-up plan in case Moss didn't work). As we all know, that went pretty well, right up until Traumaaugenblick #2. I think that last season we didn't get much of a chance to understand how the team had changed after the 2007 SB because the first couple of months were spent evaluating Cassel. In the end, things turned out okay, and had Brady been our QB, we almost certainly would have been a playoff team.

However, where we got beat last year was on defense (think about the Miami game we lost, the Chargers game, and the Jets game as moments when our defense broke down). So this year, Belichick took another risk and revamped the defense. For the first 10 weeks of the season, that risk seemed to have paid off pretty well; we were 2nd overall in points allowed and even after the past few weeks, we are still 7th. Consider that we have played the leading team for offensive points scored (the Saints), and the third-leading team (the Colts) -- if you're wondering, we're the second-best team for points scored. That's not too shabby considering the changes. And I can't stress enough that the changes needed to happen. I still believe that aside from the aging LBs (Eli dodges the sack, remember?), the other flaw that needed correction was the secondary, which was a freaking mess last season. That appeared to be mostly fixed until this past game, where suddenly there were major gaps. Something tells me that another attempt will be made to fix it this year. One of the qualities I most admire about Belichick is his ability to stop a bad situation from getting worse: he's not too proud (or arrogant) to admit his mistakes in the roster.

One of the key factors in this season which I think is overlooked is the Joey Galloway one (dammit, I need to revive that tag!). He was supposed to be our third receiver and would not have been a shabby one. But that didn't turn out...who knew that he couldn't keep his feet inbounds? So we gambled (by getting rid of Gaffney) and that did not pay off. There isn't anything anyone can do about it now, and it doesn't help that a lot of the other potentials, such as Edelman and Tate, have been injured.

Why am I saying this now? Because I can promise you that no one watched last week's game more acutely than Belichick and he sees those weaknesses. More importantly, he will try to correct them. While it might not be possible this late in the season -- and let's not forget that barring a complete meltdown of Bucc-ish proportions, this team is still going to the playoffs -- he will try to change it for next year. It may not work: consider that our secondary is not where it should be. More continuity in the coaching staff would help, I think, since there has been a lot of turnover during the past few seasons. The situation at running back would benefit from more stability; again, it was a gamble signing Fred Taylor and it appeared to be a good one right up until the point when he got injured (imagine if we had Maroney and Taylor, our running game might be pretty solid). So did this season turn out the way we had hoped? No, it's not 2007, and it never will be again. However, 2007 also ended in one of the most painful Traumaaugenblicken imaginable, so we should be happy it's a new team. It may not be perfect, but it's ours, and as always, in Bill I trust.

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